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Ever since, company promoters and lead managers have been looked upon with suspicion by investors. Unless the IPOs are attractively priced investors have been wary of losing money in them. Even the lure of listing gains has fizzled out with markets not rewarding speculators with gains on listing of over-priced IPOs. There is so much negativity about IPOs that the market has almost dried up over the past three years. Very few companies have dared to debut on the bourses during this period. Even amongst the ones that did, just a handful have managed to stay above listing price. The question is: Are investors missing the bus by letting go the opportunity of investing in companies at the IPO stage?
Well, we cannot resist quoting Buffett's view on IPOs here "The new issue market is ruled by controlling stockholders and corporations who can usually select the timing of offerings.
Invesco - Product Detail - Mutual Funds - VKMMX
Understandably these sellers are not going to offer any bargains. It's rare you'll find X being sold for half X. Indeed, in the case of common stock offerings, selling shareholders are often motivated to unload only when they feel the market is overpaying. Thus it is even more important for investors to judge the moat of the business, the sustainability of profits and management quality of the businesses offered through the IPO route. Since it is difficult to reasonably evaluate these for a company yet to be listed, it is better to exercise caution. Besides the margin of safety in IPO valuations, investors must be way of future visibility.
Hence we do not think investor concern is in any way misplaced by giving over-priced IPOs a miss. It is a far safer option to invest once the companies prove their worth a couple of years after listing. Do you think investors are missing the bus by being over cautious about IPOs? We delivered! Presenting our all-new Company Factsheet pages, with 5-Yr data and analysis!
Plus a much more user-friendly format, with charts showing important long term trends including sales and profits. Click here to view the all new Infosys Factsheet If the response to the latest Equitymaster investor survey is anything to go by, there is still an overwhelming preference for banking with PSU banks amongst depositors. In fact the trend is very similar to when depositors actually withdrew money from private sector banks , fearing a run on them. Source: Equitymaster survey. Now, yet another swan has emerged. And it's being called the bronze swan.
The word bronze being a reference to the metal of copper. The world had always wondered about how there had always been a lot more copper in China than the country actually needed. It now turns out that a good part of the copper stockpile was nothing but a ploy undertaken by small and midsized firms to get themselves funded.
It should be noted that China had put in place plans to restrict funding to its corporate sector. So, what did the Chinese companies do? Well, they started importing copper from abroad so that they could get trade financing or any other similar form of financing. They would then use the physical copper as collateral for domestic borrowing. However, the Chinese government has now finally decided to end such financing deals as it was hurting China's current account situation.
Therefore with this move, it is expected that copper would eventually settle down to lower prices. And its meteoric rise has prompted investors to question whether the metal needs to be bought at current price levels. An article in Firstpost states that the current state of affairs has made gold a very attractive proposition to be considered at current prices.
The current global environment is highly supportive of having gold in one's portfolio. The developed economies are in a dump.
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Central banks in these countries have resorted to massive quantitative easing measures which have eroded the value of paper currencies and strengthened the case for gold. And despite what the US says of the economy improving, economic data remains mixed. So it seems quite unlikely that the printing money process will be entirely done away with.
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What will also determine the gold prices is the money supply in the economy. Bernanke seems intent in extending credit to the economy. And as long as this happens, inflation will only rear its ugly head once again. Indeed, corrections in the metal along the way are bound to happen. But the developed world has shown no meaningful signs of recovery. Plus the central banks have shown no signs of halting printing of money. Thus, gold will retain its allure in the longer term. With such strong correlations, one would expect the nations to learn lessons and sober up on debt. However, reality is just the opposite.
And the next economy that is inviting a financial crisis is none other than China. The credit is already more than double the GDP.
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Worse, it is only set to grow at double the pace. China, once an export driven economy, is now being driven by the credit boom. The problem with this pattern is that this debt is not being invested in the growth. Instead, money is being borrowed to repay previous loans. This is a serious issue and makes one wonder how this money will ever be repaid. Especially now when the growth in China is slowing down. One may call Chu biased as ratio of nonperforming loans seems to have come down since the end of However, as per Chu, this data is distorted.
It excludes off balance sheet loans that have been sold to investors ready to take higher risks in hope of better returns. A credit boom along with fancy financial products designed to keep risky assets off the books was something that laid the foundation for one of the worst financial crisis that still haunts the global economies. While it might not be a case of imminent doom as most of China's credit is funded by its internally generated deposits; what is happening in China has all ingredients that go into making a disaster. But an interesting article in Bloomberg counters most of the arguments.
On an overall basis, the key question is whether these TBTF banks are borrowing at rates lower than they otherwise would. And not necessarily in comparison to the smaller banks; all this given that they have backing from the government. Let us take up an example. Companies' debt instruments are given various ratings. What the author of the article is suggesting is that one should not be comparing a company having 'AAA' rating with one having a relatively lower rating of 'A'. Instead, within companies having 'AAA' ratings, can a particular company get more of an advantage just because it is funded or backed by the government?
Looking at it from this perspective, we believe it surely does weaken the analysts' stand. Lakhs of Indian investors have lost their hard-earned money. Here's some more worrying news For starters, Amway is India's largest multi-level direct selling company. To the extent the Fund focuses its investments in these instruments or securities, the Fund's performance will depend on the overall condition of those industries and the individual banks and financial institutions in which the Fund invests directly or indirectly , the supply of short-term financing, changes in government regulation, changes in interest rates, and economic downturns in the United States and abroad.
Bank Loan Risk. There are a number of risks associated with an investment in bank loans including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk.
Extended trade settlement periods may result in cash not being immediately available to the Fund. As a result, the Fund may have to sell other investments or engage in borrowing transactions to raise cash to meet its obligations. The risk of holding bank loans is also directly tied to the risk of insolvency or bankruptcy of the issuing banks. These risks could cause the Fund to lose income or principal on a particular investment, which in turn could affect the Fund's returns.
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The value of bank loans can be affected by and sensitive to changes in government regulation and to economic downturns in the United States and abroad. Bank loans generally are floating rate loans, which are subject to interest rate risk as the interest paid on the floating rate loans adjusts periodically based on changes in widely accepted reference rates.
Bank loans held by the Fund might not be considered securities for purposes of the Securities Act of or the Securities Exchange Act of , and therefore a risk exists that purchasers, such as the Fund, may not be entitled to rely on the anti-fraud provisions of those Acts. Borrower Credit Risk. Senior Loans, like most other debt obligations, are subject to the risk of default. The risk of default will increase in the event of an economic downturn or a substantial increase in interest rates.
The Fund may acquire Senior Loans of Borrowers that are experiencing, or are more likely to experience, financial difficulty, including Senior Loans issued in highly leveraged transactions. The Fund may even acquire and retain in its portfolio Senior Loans of Borrowers that have filed for bankruptcy protection. Because of the protective terms of Senior Loans, the Adviser believes that the Fund is more likely to recover more of its investment in a defaulted Senior Loan than would be the case for most other types of defaulted debt securities. Nevertheless, even in the case of collateralized Senior Loans, there is no assurance that sale of the collateral would raise enough cash to satisfy the Borrower's payment obligation or that the collateral can or will be liquidated.
In the case of bankruptcy, liquidation may not occur and the court may not give Lenders the full benefit of their senior position. Uncollateralized Senior Loans involve a greater risk of loss. Changing Fixed Income Market Conditions. The current low interest rate environment was created in part by the Federal Reserve Board FRB and certain foreign central banks keeping the federal funds and equivalent foreign rates at or near zero.
Increases in the federal funds and equivalent foreign rates may expose fixed income markets to heightened volatility and reduced liquidity for certain fixed income investments, particularly those with longer maturities. In addition, decreases in fixed income dealer market-making capacity may also potentially lead to heightened volatility and reduced liquidity in the fixed income markets. As a result, the value of the Fund's investments and share price may decline.
Collateralized Loan Obligations Risk. CLOs are subject to the risks of substantial losses due to actual defaults by underlying borrowers, which will be greater during periods of economic or financial stress. CLOs may also lose value due to collateral defaults and disappearance of subordinate tranches, market anticipation of defaults, and investor aversion to CLO securities as a class. The risks of CLOs will be greater if the Fund invests in CLOs that hold loans of uncreditworthy borrowers or if the Fund holds subordinate tranches of the CLO that absorbs losses from the defaults before senior tranches.
In addition, CLOs are subject to interest rate risk and credit risk. Credit Linked Notes Risk. Risks of credit linked notes include those risks associated with the underlying reference obligation including but not limited to market risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, default risk and, in some cases, foreign currency risk.
An investor in a credit linked note bears counterparty risk or the risk that the issuer of the credit linked note will default or become bankrupt and not make timely payment of principal and interest of the structured security. Credit linked notes may be less liquid than other investments and therefore harder to dispose of at the desired time and price. In addition, credit linked notes may be leveraged and, as a result, small changes in the value of the underlying reference obligation may produce disproportionate losses to the Fund.
Debt Securities Risk. The prices of debt securities held by the Fund will be affected by changes in interest rates, the creditworthiness of the issuer and other factors. An increase in prevailing interest rates typically causes the value of existing debt securities to fall and often has a greater impact on longer-duration debt securities and higher quality debt securities.
Falling interest rates will cause the Fund to reinvest the proceeds of debt securities that have been repaid by the issuer at lower interest rates. Falling interest rates may also reduce the Fund's distributable income because interest payments on floating rate debt instruments held by the Fund will decline.
The Adviser's credit analysis may fail to anticipate such changes, which could result in buying a debt security at an inopportune time or failing to sell a debt security in advance of a price decline or other credit event. Defaulted Securities Risk. Defaulted securities pose a greater risk that principal will not be repaid than non-defaulted securities. Defaulted securities and any securities received in an exchange for such securities may be subject to restrictions on resale. Derivatives Risk. The value of a derivative instrument depends largely on and is derived from the value of an underlying security, currency, commodity, interest rate, index or other asset each referred to as an underlying asset.
In addition to risks relating to the underlying assets, the use of derivatives may include other, possibly greater, risks, including counterparty, leverage and liquidity risks. Counterparty risk is the risk that the counterparty to the derivative contract will default on its obligation to pay the Fund the amount owed or otherwise perform under the derivative contract. Derivatives create leverage risk because they do not require payment up front equal to the economic exposure created by owning the derivative.
Derivative instruments may also be less liquid than more traditional investments and the Fund may be unable to sell or close out its derivative positions at a desirable time or price. This risk may be more acute under adverse market conditions, during which the Fund may be most in need of liquidating its derivative positions.
Derivatives may also be harder to value, less tax efficient and subject to changing government regulation that could impact the Fund's ability to use certain derivatives or their cost. Also, derivatives used for hedging or to gain or limit exposure to a particular market segment may not provide the expected benefits, particularly during adverse market conditions. Financial Leverage. There are risks associated with borrowing or issuing preferred shares in an effort to increase the yield and distributions on the Common Shares, including that the costs of the financial leverage exceed the income from investments made with such leverage, the higher volatility of the net asset value of the Common Shares, and that fluctuations in the interest rates on the borrowing or dividend rates on preferred shares may affect the yield and distributions to the Common Shareholders.
As long as the Fund is able to invest the proceeds of any financial leverage in senior loans or other investments that provide a higher net return than the current cost of such financial leverage i. However, if the current costs of financial leverage were to exceed the return on such proceeds after expenses which the Adviser believes to be an unlikely scenario , the Common Shareholders would have a lower rate of return than if the Fund had an unleveraged capital structure. During any annual period when the Fund has a net payable on the interest due on borrowings or the dividends due on any outstanding preferred shares, the failure to pay on such amounts would preclude the Fund from paying dividends on the Common Shares.
The rights of lenders to the Fund to receive interest on and repayment of principal on any borrowings will be senior to those of the holders of the Common Shares, and the terms of any such borrowings may contain provisions which limit certain activities of the Fund, including the payment of dividends to holders of Common Shares in certain circumstances, and may require the Fund to pledge assets to secure such borrowings. Further, the terms of such borrowings may, and the Act does in certain circumstances , grant to the lenders to the Fund certain voting rights in the event of default in the payment of interest on or repayment of principal.
In addition, under the Act, the Fund is not permitted to declare any cash dividend or other distribution on its Common Shares unless, at the time of such declaration and after deducting the amount of such dividend or distribution, the Fund is in compliance with the asset coverage requirements of the Act.
Such prohibition on the payment of dividends or distributions might impair the ability of the Fund to maintain its qualification, for federal income tax purposes, as a regulated investment company. The Fund intends, however, to the extent possible, to repay borrowings or redeem any outstanding preferred securities from time to time if necessary, which may involve the payment by the Fund of a premium and the sale by the Fund of portfolio securities at a time when it may be disadvantageous to do so, to maintain compliance with such asset coverage requirements.
If there are preferred shares issued and outstanding, holders of the preferred shares will elect two Trustees. In addition, the terms of any preferred shares or borrowing may entitle holders of the preferred shares or lenders, as the case may be, to elect a majority of the Board of Trustees in certain other circumstances. Foreign Investments Risk. The Fund's foreign Investments may be adversely affected by political and social instability, changes in economic or taxation policies, difficulty in enforcing obligations, decreased liquidity or increased volatility. Foreign investments also involve the risk of the possible seizure, nationalization or expropriation of the issuer or foreign deposits in which the Fund could lose its entire investments in a certain market and the possible adoption of foreign governmental restrictions such as exchange controls.
Unless the Fund has hedged its foreign securities risk, foreign securities risk also involves the risk of negative foreign currency rate fluctuations, which may cause the value of securities denominated in such foreign currency or other instruments through which the Fund has exposure to foreign currencies to decline in value. Currency exchange rates may fluctuate significantly over short periods of time. Currency hedging strategies, if used, are not always successful. High Yield Senior Loans Risk.
Investments in high yield Senior Loans "junk investments" and other lower-rated Senior Loans will subject the Fund to substantial risk of loss.